The Fed, The Shutdown, and Why None Of It Changes Your Connecticut Decision

Data as of October 5, 2025. Some reports are delayed due to the federal shutdown.

If you've been watching Fed meetings and rate predictions thinking that's what you need to figure out before you can move, I've got news for you: it's not.

Rates are stable. Inventory is tight. Winter is coming. And no amount of clarity on macro noise is going to create more houses or less competition.

Here's what's actually real — and what you should be focusing on if you're planning to buy in Connecticut.

Mortgage Rates: What Actually Happened

Let's clear up the confusion first.

30-year fixed rates are hovering around 6.35% right now. They've been stable at that level since the Fed made their September rate cut.

But here's the part most people missed: rates actually went up after the Fed cut, not down. They were around 6.1% before the cut. Then the jobs report came out around the same time showing stronger-than-expected employment numbers, and rates jumped to 6.35%.

Why? Because the bond market — which actually drives mortgage rates — saw that jobs report and repriced the whole outlook.

This is the part everyone gets backwards: rates had already dropped to 6.1% in the anticipation of the Fed cutting. The market moves first. The Fed follows. Then everyone acts surprised when rates don't drop the day after a Fed announcement.

So if you've been waiting for rates to fall after the next Fed meeting, you're watching the wrong thing.

The Fed: What They're Watching (And Why It Doesn't Matter To You)

The Federal Reserve meets October 28–29. Futures markets are pricing in about a 98% chance of a quarter-point rate cut.

Employment has softened slightly. Inflation has cooled. They'll probably cut again.

And mortgage rates? They might tick down a quarter point. They might stay flat. They might edge up depending on what data drops that week.

The bond market will decide — not Jerome Powell's press conference.

The Shutdown: Creating Fog For Some, Not All

Federal agencies remain partially closed. No fresh jobs report. No CPI update. No clear read on the economy's direction.

Most buyers are treating this like a reason to wait. "Let's see what the data says when it comes back."

Meanwhile, the bond market — which moves billions daily — already priced in slower growth weeks ago and pushed rates to their current level. The shutdown isn't stopping informed buyers from acting. It's just keeping the uncertain ones distracted.

By the time fresh data arrives and everyone gets comfortable, you'll be competing with all of them.

Connecticut Reality: What You're Actually Up Against

Here's what matters more than any Fed meeting or data release:

Inventory is already tight.

We don't have enough homes listed to meet current buyer demand — and that was before rates stabilized. When rates do eventually drift lower (and they will at some point), that imbalance gets worse, not better.

Lower rates don't create more houses. They create more buyers.

Fewer sellers list during winter.

This isn't speculation — it's pattern. Every year, listing volume drops from November through February. Sellers don't want to deal with showings during holidays. They don't want to move in winter. They wait until spring.

That means the pool of available homes you're choosing from gets smaller over the next four months — regardless of what the Fed does.

Competition is about to increase, not decrease.

Right now, you're competing with buyers who are comfortable moving at 6.35%. If rates drop to 6%, you'll be competing with them plus everyone who was waiting for rates to hit 6%. If rates drop to 5.75%, add another wave.

You can't time this. You can't wait for the perfect rate and the perfect house and the perfect moment when nobody else is looking. The market doesn't work that way.

What you can control: being prepared when the right property shows up.

That means having your financing locked in. Knowing your real budget (not the max approval, the payment you're comfortable with). Understanding what you're actually willing to compromise on. Having a plan for how fast you can move when you find something.

Because in a tight inventory market with stable rates and rising competition, the buyers who win aren't the ones with perfect timing. They're the ones who are ready when opportunity appears.

The spring rush starts earlier than you think.

Most buyers assume the market "wakes up" in March or April. It doesn't. Serious buyers start positioning in January and February because they know inventory is limited and they want first look at anything decent that hits the market.

If you're planning to buy in the first half of 2026, your preparation window is now — not after the holidays, not when rates drop another quarter point, not when you see ten perfect houses listed in March.

By then, you're reacting. Right now, you can be positioned.

What This Means For You

Stop watching the Fed. Stop trying to decode bond market signals. Stop waiting for perfect information about macro conditions.

None of it changes the Connecticut decision you need to make: are you prepared to act when the right property appears, or are you waiting for conditions that won't improve your actual position?

Rates are stable around 6.35%. They might drift lower, they might not. But even if they drop, your buying power only matters if you can still find the house — and every rate drop brings more competition for the same limited inventory.

The buyers who succeed in this market aren't the ones who timed it perfectly. They're the ones who got clear on what they actually wanted, built a solid plan, and moved decisively when they found it.

Two Paths Forward

You can watch from the sidelines and react when everyone else does, or you can get positioned now while most buyers are still deciding.

If you want the second option, reply with your situation (first-time buyer, upsizing, relocating, etc.) and I'll send you a personal video showing exactly what you should be doing this month.

Takes me 5 minutes to record, could save you months of frustration.

Bottom Line

October is shaping up to be one of those months that looks obvious in hindsight. The buyers who moved while everyone else was watching Fed meetings and waiting for perfect clarity will be the ones who found what they wanted at a price they could live with.

The ones who waited for all the macro noise to resolve will be competing with everyone else in a market that has even less inventory to choose from.

Your call.